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THE OBIDIENTS, THE JAGABAN AND THE ICARUS SYNDROME By Femi Fani-Kayode

I believe that they wish to effect a social and political revolution which those of us in the larger political parties have to be very wary of.

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I admire and respect the energy and passion of the Obidients and like I said in an earlier write-up titled “Who Are These Obidients?”, I believe that they wish to effect a social and political revolution which those of us in the larger political parties have to be very wary of.

I also believe that if they stay together and don’t run out of steam and if properly harnessed and managed over the next few years they may present a formidable challenge to us somewhere down the line.

Yet the truth is that like a rough and uncut diamond they are still very far from their mark, they still have a long way to go from achieving perfection and they still have much to learn.

They are a formidable movement as I said in my earlier write up and I, unlike many others, take them seriously.

I am glad that they have ventured into the dark and murky waters of Nigerian politics and it is my prayer that they survive it and last, even if they don’t make an appreciable impact at the polls next year.

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Yet if the truth be told, as at today, they are more like a loose canon than a guided missile.

Anger alone cannot fuel a revolution: there must be purpose.

And that clear purpose is something that they seem to lack and which their leader, other than just wanting to be President of a so-called New Nigeria, clearly is incapable of providing.

Worst still, hubris, which always leads to nemesis, is beginning to creep into their ranks.

They remind me of the Greek mythological figure known as Icarus who overeached himself by flying too close to the sun with his wax wings, challenging the gods and boasting that he could touch the heavens.

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Needless to say the wings melted and he came down crashing.

What worries me the most for them is, given their high expectations, the rude shock and sense of despair that will engulf them and the suffering and mental trauma they will experience after they receive a crushing defeat in next years presidential election. And receive it they will.

I doubt that they will win one Senatorial district or one seat in the House of Representatives let alone a Governorship election or the Presidential election.

It is after they have tasted and suffered that defeat that their resolve will be truly tested.

It is at that time that we shall find out whether they are the men and women they claim to be or that they are mere children, venting on social media and expressing their frustrations at any and every public event.

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I had argued in my earlier contribution that they have vision and potential and that what makes them so dangerous is their revolutionary zeal and ideas and their desire to establish a new cadre of Nigerian leaders and sweep away the old.

I maintain this position but one thing is clear: the old political order will not allow this to happen without a good fight.

And even if it were to ever happen it would take a good number of years and much struggle.

After 2023 comes the real test for them.

After they suffer their first defeat next year they will either loose their nerve, freak out, crack up, break ranks, fall into disssaray, whine like neophytes, sulk to heaven and back, suck their little thumbs and insult the entire world on social media or they will accept their lot, pull themselves together, establish a new and firm resolve e to fight on regardless, consolidate their ranks, organise themselves into a new and formidable force and functional political party and prepare for the next election in four years time.

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Sadly I suspect they are incapable of the latter simply because their leader lacks that level of focus, strength, commitment, fortitude or gravitas and I am not sure that there is anyone else within their ranks that can rise up and harness their remarkable energy and strength.

None of their leaders have the energy, charisma and strength of Yahaya Bello, the White Lion.

None has the wisdom, patience, knowledge and firm resolve of Mai Mala Buni or the commitment to hard work and dedication to duty, excellence and enterprise of Babagana Zulum.

None has the gentle, kind, accommodating, alluring and incisive disposition of Sani Bello (Abu Lolo) or the faith, steadfastness and loyalty of Bello Matawalle.
None has the vision, courage and firepower of Nasir El-Rufai, the profound and calculating disposition and utter genius of Sani Musa (313) or the depth of knowledge and brilliance in oratory of Kashim Shettima.

None has the calm resolve and iron will of Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Gburugburu), the calculating, tenacious and tactical disposition of Rahman Abdul Rasaq, the zeal, confidence, enterprise, experience and byzantine cunning of Orji Uzor Kalu or the irresistible charisma and pugnacious spirit of Nyesom Wike.

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None has the intellectual depth of Kayode Fayemi, the lion heart of Dapo Abiodun, the scholarly insight of Ben Ayaade or the focus, determination and creativity of David Umahi.

I look into the ranks of their leaders and all I see is weakness.

The only exception is my older brother and dear friend Doyin Okupe who, as a highly experienced old war horse and veteran politican, is capable of holding his own in any fight but who, deep down, is a die-hard conservative, a product of the ruling class and a man that can hardly be described as a revolutionary.

I will say little about my brother Datti Ahmed, Obi’s running mate, who I happen to have a soft spot for and who has done a great job in the education sector other than to say that no true progressive or revolutionary would ever publicly proclaim that homosexuals and lesbians should “be killed” simply for being different.

And even if they believed that should be the case, fewer would have the temerity and sheer indiscretion to blurt it out on the floor of the Nigerian Senate for the entire world to see and hear.

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Is that what the Obidients have in store for us? A world that is so intolerant of those that do not conform with their thoughts, vision, views, way of life, values and sexual preferences?

Are they really prepared to kill those that do not share their views or that are gays and lesbians?

I hope not because that would be heartless, fascistic, unjust, ungodly and simply barbaric and that is not the Datti Ahmed that I know and respect.

Yet say it he did and I repeat, all I see in the ranks of their leaders is weakness. I do not see any strength. I do not see any fire. I do not see any strong resolve. I do not see any passion or zeal and I do not see any fortitude to see the fight through to the end, no matter the cost.

Simply put they have no Achilles of the Mermidans in their battle ranks, no Hector of Troy, no Sir Arthur Dayne (the Sword of the Morning) and no Khaleed Ibn Waheed (the Sword of God).

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They have no Aragorn of Gondor on their front line, no Alexander the Great, no Salahudeen Ayubi, no Ragnar Lothbrook, no Uthred of Bebbanberg and no William Wallace of the Mcregor’s.

They have no Robert the Bruce in their formations, no Bonny Prince Charlie, no Khaleesi, Mother of Dragons, no Beowulf son of Ecgtheow and no Daemon Targaryan, Prince of the Seven Kingdoms.

They have no Kahl Drogo of the Dothraki in their forces, no Jehu son of Nimshi, no Maximus Meridius of Rome, no David son of Jesse, no Grey Worm of the Unsullied, no Legolas of the Elves and no John Snow of the Targaryan’s.

They have no Gideon son of Joash in their vanguard, no Abner son of Ner, no Jeptha son of Gilead, no Eleazar son of Dodo, no Shammah son of Agee and
no Ishbaal the Tachmonite.

They have no Joab, Abishai and Asahel sons of Zeruel and strong men of David in their assault team.

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Without a strong and courageous leader who is prepared to loose everything including his or her liberty or life, their revolution and bid for power will amount to nothing.

Consequently I believe that we may hear little about them after 2023.

They will simply vanish and be gone with the wind. The combined forces of APC and PDP will overwhelm them and blow them away.

When the fight starts they will run for cover and leave the field and boxing ring for the big boys to slug it out.

They will be nowhere to be found and as the noose gets tighter and tighter, they will get weaker and weaker until they slowly disappear and melt away like an iceberg approaching the tropics.

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I pray I am wrong but this is my suspicion given the fact that, according to unconfirmed reports, Obi is already negotiating a deal with the PDP and looking to form an alliance with them in order to acquire himself a soft landing in the unlikely event of them winning.

So much for his commitment to his young fanatical supporters and loyalty to his new party.

The truth is that he is simply using them both and whichever way, even if he gets back into bed with Atiku Abubakar and the PDP in some kind of overt or covert alliance, the APC and our presidential candidate Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Jagaban Borgu, will thrash them all like the winter wheat.

Atiku particularly cannot possibly see, fathom or comprehend what is coming.

He will be served a crushing blow and a humiliating defeat and he will be utterly devastated.

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He will be subjected to what the American military forces that invaded Iraq in 2003 under the command of General Tommy Franks famously described as “shock and awe”.

He will be subjected to what the German Army referred to as “blitzkrieg” during World War 11.

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He will be utterly routed, roundly defeated, thoroughly demystified and ingloriously evicted out of the political space and from his olympian heights in precisely the same way that Lucifer, Son of the Dawn, was overpowered, overwhelmed and thrown out of Heaven.

After that he will retire from politics permanently and go back to Dubai from whence he came.

And that is precisely what he deserves. This is the same Atiku who in 2014 happily proclaimed that “PDP is dead” and that “this country is moving in the wrong direction because of PDP”.

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In that same year he left the party with the then Speaker of the House, five Governors and a number of Senators, House members, former Governors, former Ministers and other notable party leaders on the grounds that it was time for a Northerner to be the flagbearer of the party.

He, Senator Bukola Saraki, Speaker of the House of Representatives Aminu Tambuwal, Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, Governor Abdul Fatah Ahmed and a number of others turned their backs on President Goodluck Jonathan and destroyed their own party’s chances at the polls in 2015 by leaving it a year earlier and joining the then opposition APC.

Now, 7 years later, they are shamelessly back in the same PDP that they collectively demonised and murdered and they would want us to believe that it has suddenly resurrected and is alive again.

Thankfully God has given us the opportunity to prove to them by next year that the PDP is still as dead as a dodo and during the course of the election we shall finally bury it before the entire world.

It is just a question of time.

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Yet aside from all this what I find the most irritating and objectionable about the Obidients is not their unadulterated aggression and abusive tendencies but rather their insistence on comparing their leader Peter Obi to Tinubu.

I consider this to be deeply insulting.

It is like comparing Don Perignon to ogogoro.

It is like comparing Cristal champagne to what the people of the Niger Delta call ‘sepe’.

It is like comparing the finest red wine from the vineyards of Bordeaux to what the Ghanaians call ‘akpeteshie’.

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It is like comparing chalk and cheese.

It is like comparing a Rolls Royce to a Volkswagon Beetle, a Porsche Carrera to a three-wheeled scooter, a Ferrari to a broken down mini or a Gulf Stream jet to an Aba-made helicopter.

When Obi was still in kindergarten Bola Ahmed Tinubu was already a very wealthy and successful business man who had worked and invested massively in the oil, gas, hi-tech and communications sector.

At that time he was already a dollar millionaire and he invested much of his wealth into politics and the lives of others that were less fortunate than he was.

When Obi was still in secondary school Bola Ahmed Tinubu was already an integral part of the massive political network and a key figure in the late Major General Shehu Musa Yar’adua’s formidable political family which was known as the People’s Front (PF) together with other notable and seasoned leaders like Babagana Kingibe and Atiku Abubakar.

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They were of course to later join the SDP as a group and they, more than any other, ensured the emergence of Chief MKO Abiola as the presidential flagbearer of that party at their Jos Convention in 1993.

When Obi was still at University Bola Ahmed Tinubu was in the trenches, fighting military Governments, leading NADECO and risking his life and liberty for the restoration of MKO Abiola’s June 12th mandate, which had been annuled by the military, and for democracy.

Many of today’s Obidients were not born at that time but they should go and ask their parents or grandparents about what happened and the role that Bola Tinubu played.

Those of us that were around and very vocal and active at the time can testify to his efforts and we were amongst those that were then described as NADECO footsoldiers.

Bola Tinubu inspired us and millions of other Nigerians and democrats all over the world with his courage and efforts and he encouraged us to keep up the struggle and rise up for June 12th. And we did!

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Many of our people were killed, incarcerated and driven into exile (including yours truly) and had it not been for the leadership of the following heroes we would still be under the yoke of military rule today.

I will make this a full and comprehensive list for the benefit of those young Obidients who have no knowledge of our nation’s history and who know nothing about the June 12th struggle.

They include Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola, Wole Soyinka, Anthony Enahoro, Alani Akinrinade, Kudirat Abiola, Kunle Ajasin, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Lam Adesina, Frederick Fasheun, Bola Ige, Ayo Adebanjo, Abraham Adesanya and Gani Fawenhimi.

They also include Beko Ransome Kuti, Alao Aka Bashorun, Omo Omoruyi, Balarabe Musa, Kayode Fayemi, Tokunboh Afikuyomi, Pascal Bafyau, Olu Omotehinwa and Kunle Ajibade.

They also include, Adesegun Banjo, Festus Iyayi, Bisi Akande, Bisi Durojaiye, Abubakar ‘Dangiwa’ Umar, Alfred Rewane, Babatunde Edu, Suliat Adedeji, Bolanle Gbonigi, Kola Animashaun, Sam Omatseye, Pius O. Akinyeleru and Gbolabo Ogunsanwo.

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They also include Adebayo Williams, Nosa Igiebor, Dare Babarinsa, Segun Osoba, Olu Falae, Akin Osuntokun, Reuben Abati, Dele Momodu, Dan Suleiman, Bagudu Kaltho, Rauf Aregbesola, Dele Alake, Augustine Sam, Seye Kehinde, Tunde Elegbede and Odia Ofeimun.

They also include Olisa Agbakoba, Ayo Obe, Amos Akingba, Ndubuisi Kanu, Patrick Koshoni, Bayo Onanuga, Femi Ojudu, Ralph Obioha, Oluwatoyin Onaguruwa, Kola Ilori, Onome Osifo-Whiskey and Bobo Nwosisi.

They also include Wale Okuniyi, Frank Kokori, Tony Nyiam, Femi Falana, Shehu Sani, Tony Uranta, Ogaga Ifowodo, Chima Ubani, Fred Agbeyegbe, Soji Omotunde and Chris Anyanwu.

And finally they include Mohammed Adamu, Sam Omatseye, Shola Omatsola, Bisoye Tejuosho, Olusegun Adeniyi, George Mbah, Ben Charles Obi and so many others.

Many of these names will be strange or unknown to the young Obidients and probably to their leader Peter Obi as well.

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And that is why I decided to mention each and everyone of them.

I suggest they read up on them and find out the role each of these great and selfless individuals played in securing the democracy and free speech that they are enjoying today.

They, together with the Nigerian people, were the ones that drove the military out of power and consequently, after seven years of murderous violence, subjugation, tyranny, tribulation and a hard struggle against the military, democracy was restored to our country in 1999 with the pardon, release from prison and election of President Olusegun Obasanjo.

Some of those on the list were martyred and many were locked up and suffered badly whilst others were driven into a lonely and oftentimes challenging and depressing exile.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu was not just amongst them but he was one of those that led them, inspired them and fuelled and financed the resistance.

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He was charged with treason, detained, his home was bombed and he was terrorised, traumatised and persecuted till the time that he, his wife, Oluremi Tinubu (who is a ranking member of the Nigerian Senate today) and children were smuggled out of the country into a long and harrowing exile.

Outside of that and before the struggle even began
Tinubu had been elected as a Senator during the 3rd Republic in 1992 on the platform of the SDP, recording the highest number of votes for a Senate seat in the entire country!

Whilst at the Senate he excelled and was appointed Chairman of the Senate Commitee on Banking and Finance.

This was just short of a decade before he became Governor of Lagos state in 1999 after the murder of MKO Abiola and the then Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha, after returning home from exile and after the military were driven away and pushed out of office.

From 1990 up until today Tinubu has been an active and key player in the political firmament of Nigeria and he has always fought against injustice and tyranny.

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Whilst Obi was still a trader selling tomatoe ketchup and Bournvita in 1999 Bola Ahmed Tinubu had already paid his dues, made his mark and was already running for the Governorship of Lagos state.

The elders of the South West and Afenifere supported him and rewarded him by ensuring that he won simply because of the noble and dramatic role he played during the June 12th struggle and his role in ensuring that the military left power.

From 1999 till 2007 he stood firm against a hostile Federal Governmrnt led by President Olusegun Obasanjo (which I proudly served) and not only did he survive it but he went on to ensure that his boys were elected as Governor of that state in every subsequent election for the next 15 years and up until today.

Over that period of time he also ensured that his boys were elected Governor of virtually all the South West states, Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (Yemi Osinbajo), Speaker of the House of Representatives (Femi Gbajabiamila) and so much more.

Others were appointed as prominent and powerful Traditional Rulers all over the South West and have ascended to the throne of their reverred and distinguished ancestors.

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Finally others were given Ministerial appointments from 2015 to date in President Muhammadu Buhari’s Government such as Lai Mohammed, Babatunde Raji Fashola and Sunday Dare who were once his loyal aides and who served him for many years whilst others, who were his political associates and trusted friends like Boss Mustapha and Babachir Lawal, were appointed as Secretary to the Federal Government respectively.

He also cultivated and groomed a small group of utterly brilliant professionals and technocrats, including bankers, lawyers, economists, businessmen and other leading members of the private sector like Wale Edun, Yemi Cardoso, Folarin Coker, Babatunde Fowler and James Faleke into the political arena where they shone and continue to shine like the bright stars that they are.

I was in the then ruling PDP in 2015 and during the campaign for the presidential election I played a key role for President Goodluck Jonathan and led the media campaign and charge against President Buhari’s election bid.

It was a tough fight and a very hard, vicious, aggressive and oftentimes dirty campaign and both sides gave as good as they got.

I can tell you that had it not been for the unequivocal support that Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his faction of the APC gave President Buhari at the time, he would NEVER have won that election.

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The same thing happened again in 2019 though by that rime the campaign was far less colourful, less eventful, less contentious, less dramatic and less aggressive and, though still in PDP, I was not in any way involved in Atiku Abubakar’s election bid or campaign organisation.

Yet once again Tinubu and his machinery ensured that Buhari won.

There is no APC Governor in the South West today that can say he got there without the tacit support and approval of Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

He is father to all of them and he has also extended his support base to the entire country with his boys, followers and political associates everywhere, including the core North, the Middle Belt, the South South and the South East.

A final point on the June 12th struggle and Tinubu’s contribution to democracy and the peace and unity of Nigeria.

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June 12th brought our nation closer to the brink of a second civil war than any other political event in the course of our history. It literally tore us apart. Yet thankfully 29 years later the wounds have finally healed and our nation has moved on.

I submit that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the architect of that healing process and was the key reason why the matter was finally brought to closure and what the Holy Bible describes as an “expected end” and I shall explain how and why.

Perhaps the greatest testimony that we can cite as an example of his sense of patriotism is the fact that long after the passing of Chief MKO Abiola and even in the midst of the rise of a mainly new, naive, skeptical, unbelieving, antagonistic and historically-ignorant generation of Gen-Z and Millenial youths who know absolutely nothing about the sacrifices made for the restoration of democracy during June 12th, he kept faith with the memory and the heroes of that struggle.

He achieved this by ensuring that MKO Abiola was not only recognised but also honored by the Buhari administration who not only named June 12th as our Democracy Day but also named the National Stadium in Abuja after MKO and formally recognised him and his erstwhile running mate, Ambassador Babagana Kingibe, as a former President and Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria respectively.

With these laudable actions they finally set aside all doubt and acknowledged the fact that, though these two great men were never sworn in, they actually won the June 12th 1993 presidential election: a fact that a handful of key players in the political space had disputed for many years and a course of action that a number of post-1999 democratically-elected Presidents and Governments had inexplicably and wickedly refused to do.

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This singular act by the Buhari administration has finally killed the ghost of June 12th, brought about national reconciliation and cemented the unity and future of Nigeria more than any other.

It has also brought to an end the deep suspicion that had hitherto existed between the people of the South West and the North.

Commendation for all this must go to primarily two people.

Firstly President Muhammadu Buhari who displayed remarkable courage and sensitivity by taking this monumental step and noble course of action and secondly Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who lobbied morning day and night to ensure that he did it.

For this alone and so much more Bola Tinubu deserves to be elected President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in next years election.

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Can any of these things be said of Peter Obi?

Of course not: unless you are deluded!

There are many former Governors, former Presidents, former Vice Presidents and former Ministers in this country whose names barely get a mention anymore in the public space but Tinubu is and has always been a constant factor for the last 32 years!

All this and much more and some have the sheer effontry to be comparing one Peter Obi who was Governor of Anambra state just a few years ago to the mighty Jagaban.

This is a big insult and frankly reflects nothing other than the ignorance of those making the comparison.

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Take it or leave it, that is the bitter truth.

To compare a strong-willed, resilient, industrious, tried and tested, exposed, gifted, blessed, wily, wise, enigmatic, courageous, intelligent and great man like Bola Ahmed Tinubu who God has used to better the lives of millions and who transformed our very own Lagos from a chaotic, ugly, dirty, congested, over-populated, poor, crime-ridden, depressing, ghetto-filled city and festering slum with a dwindling economy, a tiny income and a negligible and pitiful IGR of 700 million naira per month in 1999 to the most modern, sophisticated, cosmopolitan, secure, orderly, powerful, dynamic, clean, beautiful, inspiring, prestigious, booming, business-friendly, commercially-gratifying, inspiring, happy, modern and prosperous city and industrial hub on the African continent with by far the largest population, an IGR of 44.5 billion naira per month, a massive income and the largest economy compared to any other CITY in Africa, the 3rd largest economy compared to any NATION in Africa (with a GDP of $76 billion) and a larger economy than over 95% of NATIONS on the African continent all as a consequence of his efforts and that of his political sons that succeeded him as Governor and established a joint and combined legacy of excellence with him over the last 23 years to a man who is so far down the ladder like Peter Obi is uncharitable.

This is the same Obi who, as Governor of his Anambra state just a few years ago, did NOTHING in terms of infrastructural development, was incapable of building up the state’s IGR, spent all his time fighting the workers and unions and oppressing his perceived enemies and instead of providing good governance and hope for his people, was busy persecuting non-indigenes and particularly Northerners and throwing them out of his state.

This is the same Obi who, as Governor of Anambra state, instead of providing inspirational leadership for his people was busy fighting the world and claiming that Lagos was no longer part of the West but now a “no-man’s land” and that took pleasure in stoking the embers of tribalism, religious intolerance, sectarian conflict and ethnic nationalism.

This is the same Obi who, as Governor of Anambra state, instead of doing something tangible and bringing the dividends of democracy to his people was, as Dele Alake the former Commissioner of Information of Lagos state rightly said, was too busy “saving money” whilst his people were dying of hunger and starvation.

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Again this is a man who, as Governor of Anambra state, boldly and publicly proclaimed that “education is not for the poor” and not only increased the school fees of students to an exorbitant and unattainable figure but also wickedly insisted that they must pay their fees for three terms in advance as opposed to one, causing many students to drop out of school and forfeit their dream of getting a good education.

Again this is a man who is essentially a commodities broker and trader that imports virtually everything from toilet paper, tomatoe puree and toothpaste to biscuits, soap and Bournvita into our country and who has done nothing to support or encourage our local industries, local industrial growth or agricultural production.

This prompted a prominent social media public commentator by the name of Ayekooto Akindele to say that “Peter Obi IMPORTS into the country what Aliko Dangote PRODUCES in the country”.

Ayekooto is right.

And the implications of the activities of international traders and commodity merchants like Obi on our economy and the value of our currency and their contribution to the high unemployment rate in our country as a consequence of their line of work and desire to make a quick buck at the expense of our local farmers and producers are legion.

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People like Obi are assisting foreign farmers and industrialists to make vast sums of money at the expense of their Nigerian counterparts by providing a vast market for them to dump their luxury items and consumner products at usually unreasonable and extortionate prices and killing local production of similar goods because our farmers and producers simply cannot compete with them.

Worse still they have done nothing to open any of the lucrative foreign markets to the few products that our farmers and industrialists can actually produce.

The direct consequence of this is poverty for the Nigerian farmer and producer and prosperity for the foreign ones and their agents and middle men like Obi.

This is unfair, unacceptable and unconciable.

And making the bulk of your money from such a nebulous and iniquitous endeavour regardless of the damaging effect and negative impact it has on your country’s economy, farmers and producers raises a lot of questions about your sense of patriotism.

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That is the problem with the Obi’s of this world.

Comparing such a man to an enigma like Tinubu who has made massive investments in different sectors of our economy and who is the employer of hundreds of thousands of our people in various local enterprises and industries is absurd.

It is like comparing a gold-plated treasure chest filled with the world’s finest and largest emralds, topaz’s and diamonds to a worthless plastic bucket filled with sand, pebbles and a sprinkling of fools gold.

It is like comparing Miss Universe or Miss World to an ugly, shifty, smelly, well-worne and well-used Mumbai lady of easy virtue.

It is like comparing Elon Musk and Bill Gates to Hushpuppi and Al Capone.

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It is like comparing a beautiful blue-blooded Turkish Sultana or Hatun with a fading, ageing, crude and vulgar 18th century Parisian streetwalker.

It is a shameful and shameless comparison.

It is a tactless, tasteless and nauseating joke.

It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing!

It is an exercise in futility and a pointless and profit less endeavour.

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Permit me to end this contribution with the following assertions.

Let the foundations of the earth rumble, let the demons scream, let the lions roar, let the wolves howl and let the sharks run riot.

Let the wailers wail, let the bulls of Bashan charge, let the mortals plot and plan, let the orcs shriek, let the goblins grumble and let our adversaries and oppressors “cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war”.

Let the forces of hell gather, let the creatures of darkness hiss and writhe, let the spoilers bellow and spoil, let the haters hate, let the liars lie and let the accusers accuse.

Let the hordes of hell, the wizards, the sorcerers, the witches, the voodoo-merchants, the witch-doctors, the spiritualists, the sharmans, the occultists, the deceivers and the agents of satan invoke their powers, chant their chants, spin their deceitful and ugly tales, cast their spells and do their worst.

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it changes nothing and their counsel shall NOT stand because the Lord, whose name is MIGHTY and FAITHFUL, is with us!

Come rain, come shine, by His grace and the will of the Nigerian people, we shall prevail in next year’s presidential election, Bola Ahmed Tinubu will win and on his mandate WE SHALL STAND!

Opinions

10 ways the Tax Bills will make states richer

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By Temitope Ajayi

Human beings naturally resist change. When comfortable where we are, we find it extremely difficult to embrace an uncharted path or seek greater glory. Those who are risk averse often don’t want to venture out to embrace unfamiliar territories no matter how tempting the possible reward may appear. We should not, however, be so imprisoned by the fear of the unknown not to explore new possibilities because we find our present circumstances satisfying enough.

Since the public debate around the Tax Reform Bills started, the strongest push back against it has come largely from the north. Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Zulum has become the face of the resistance for the reasons he has pushed forward, even when some of them didn’t speak to the facts and provisions of the bills.

If Governor Zulum and other voices of resistance who think the states will be shortchanged had actually taken time to examine the four executive Bills, they will see how progressive and transformative the Bills are. They will also discern the thought behind them which is primarily to make both the Federal and sub-nationals fiscally stronger and buoyant.

In his public presentations and the most recent being the Channels TV Town Hall moderated by Seun Okinbaloye Monday evening, Chairman of Presidential Committee on Tax and Fiscal Policy Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele and other panelists again made convincing arguments for the passage of the Bills before the National Assembly.

Here are the 10 ways the Tax Bills will serve the states better and enhance their capacity to earn more revenue:

1. The federal government will cede 5% out of its current 15% share of VAT revenue to states.

2. The Bills will transfer income from the Electronic Money Transfer levy exclusively to states as part of stamp duties.

3. The Bills seek to repeal obsolete stamp duties law and re-enactment of a simplified law to enhance the revenue for states.

4. Under the new dispensation the Tax Bills will usher in, states will be entitled to the tax of Limited Liability Partnerships.

5. When passed by the National Assembly, the Tax Bills will enable the state government to enjoy tax exemption on their bonds to be at par with federal government bonds.

6. Under the proposed tax reform, states will enjoy a more equitable model for VAT attribution and distribution that will lead to higher VAT income.

7. Integrated tax administration will provide tax intelligence to states, strengthen capacity development and collaboration, and scope of Tax Appeal Tribunal to cover taxpayer disputes on state taxes.

8. The proposed tax laws grant powers for Accountant General of the Federation to deduct taxes unremitted by a government or MDA and pay to the beneficiary sub-national government on personal income tax of workers of federal institutions in states.

9. Framework to grant autonomy for states internal revenue service and enhanced Joint Revenue Board to promote collaborative fiscal federalism.

10. Legal framework for taxation of lottery and gaming and introduction of withholding tax for the benefit of states.

From the aforementioned, it is clear that the Tax Bills are not in any way injurious to the states. Apart from streamlining the tax system in Nigeria and catalysing economic output, the tax and fiscal policy reforms provide incentives for states to become economic powerhouses. The challenge for governors will be to put on their thinking cap by investing in manpower and critical social and physical infrastructure in their states that will support businesses and socio-economic activities to flourish.

-Ajayi is Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity

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Forging Ahead: The Evolving Nigeria-South Africa Alliance

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By Sunday Dare

As Nigeria and South Africa hold the 11th session of Nigeria-South Africa Bi-National Commission, in Cape Town, on Tue Dec 3, 2024 it is trite to establish the contours of their relationship and to thank President Tinubu for keeping faith with Africa’s other big brother.
The radar on Nigeria again shifts to South Africa witnessing three weeks of unprecedented shuttle political and economic diplomacy.

President Bola Tinubu’s co-chairmanship of the 11th Nigeria-South Africa Bi-National Commission (BNC) alongside President Cyril Ramaphosa marks a significant diplomatic step towards fostering stronger bilateral ties.

This meeting, which coincides with the 25th anniversary of the BNC, underscores the importance of high-level engagements between Africa’s two largest economies.

As Nigeria and South Africa convene the 11th session of the Nigeria-South Africa Bi-National Commission (BNC) in Cape Town on Tuesday, December 3, 2024, it is imperative to reflect on the historical and evolving contours of their relationship. This milestone session, coinciding with the 25th anniversary of the BNC, serves as a testament to the resilience, ambition, and shared vision of Africa’s two largest economies. It is also a fitting moment to commend President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his unwavering commitment to fostering robust ties with Africa’s other “big brother,” South Africa.

In the wake of three weeks of intense shuttle diplomacy spanning political and economic arenas, Nigeria’s radar is again fixed on South Africa. These engagements underscore a mutual recognition of their intertwined destinies in shaping Africa’s future.

As leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders converge in Cape Town, the air will be laden with both expectation and nostalgia—a poignant reminder of a partnership that has endured triumphs, challenges, and moments of historic significance.

One cannot but recall May 1990, when Nelson Mandela, few months after his release from Robben Island, embarked on a state visit to Lagos. That moment, etched in the annals of African solidarity, rekindled the bond between Nigeria and South Africa, catalyzing a renewed era of collaboration. It was a symbolic bridge, uniting the aspirations of two nations whose struggles and victories have defined the narrative of Africa’s journey toward liberation and unity.

This week, Cape Town becomes the stage for another chapter in this storied relationship. With the BNC serving as a platform for dialogue and cooperation, the two nations are poised to reaffirm their roles as co-architects of a continent driven by shared prosperity, peace, and purpose. Their ability to navigate the currents of history while embracing the opportunities of the future demonstrates that this partnership is, indeed, coming of age.

Established in 1999, the Nigeria-South Africa BNC is a structured platform aimed at enhancing cooperation across political, economic, and social sectors. Over the years, the commission has evolved into a key mechanism for dialogue, addressing shared challenges, and fostering sustainable development.

This year’s session, encompassing eight working groups, highlights both nations’ commitment to addressing mutual priorities: These key priorities include political consultations (ensuring stability in regional and global contexts), consular and migration Issues (addressing concerns such as xenophobia and facilitating smoother relations), banking and finance (exploring avenues for economic integration), defence and security (trackling transnational crimes and terrorism), as well as manufacturing and trade (including strengthening intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, AfCFTA). Also covered are mines and energy (leveraging natural resources for mutual benefit, social sector development (promoting education, healthcare, and culture), and trade and Investment (expanding business opportunities for both nations).

The philosophical underpinnings for the BNC embodies principles of Pan-Africanism, Ubuntu, and liberal institutionalism, emphasizing unity, collective progress, and institutionalized cooperation. As Nelson Mandela aptly stated, “The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.” This captures the essence of overcoming historical frictions to achieve a united African future.

President Tinubu’s leadership in this context is pivotal, reflecting Nigeria’s strategic role in Africa’s socio-economic and political landscape.

A discussion of the ongoing efforts would be incomplete without referencing philosophical concepts that accentuate its significance.
Rooted in the works of W.E.B. Du Bois, Kwame Nkrumah, and Julius Nyerere, Pan-Africanism emphasizes the solidarity of African nations to combat external domination and promote socio-economic progress. The BNC reflects this ideal by uniting Nigeria and South Africa as pillars of African development. As Kwame Nkrumah once said, “The forces that unite us are intrinsic and greater than the superimposed influences that keep us apart.”. This quote underscores the importance of Nigeria and South Africa overcoming historical challenges, such as xenophobia, to focus on collective progress.

The BNC’s deliberations and MoUs can be seen as an extension of this principle. According to Aristotle, “The good of the people must be the great aim of government.” The Southern African philosophy of Ubuntu, often translated as “I am because we are,” aligns with the spirit of the BNC. It emphasizes interconnectedness, mutual respect, and the collective good. Ubuntu offers a philosophical lens through which Nigeria and South Africa can navigate shared challenges and opportunities. As Desmond Tutu once reflected: “We can only be human together: hence, the essence of collaborative efforts in fostering a united African front.

Beyond these, the Dependency Theory, associated with scholars like Andre Gunder Frank, critiques the global economic system’s perpetuation of underdevelopment in the Global South. By strengthening intra-African trade and reducing reliance on foreign powers, Nigeria and South Africa can challenge these structures through platforms like the BNC. Joseph Stiglitz’s words that “Development is about transforming the lives of people, not just transforming economies,” aligns with the BNC’s goals of translating economic growth into meaningful societal impacts.

The pragmatic effort to address specific issues in trade, security, and development stresses the responsibility of both leaders to focus on concrete outcomes over rhetoric. More importantly, it refects the basic principles of African Renaissance. Championed by scholars like Cheikh Anta Diop and Thabo Mbeki, the African Renaissance envisions a continent reclaiming its rightful place in global affairs through unity, cultural revival, and economic development. The BNC is a practical manifestation of this vision.Certainly, Tinubu and Ramaphosa are evoking the shared identity and destiny of Nigerians and South Africans in fostering an African Renaissance. The BNC serves as a practical example of liberal institutionalism, fostering dialogue and collaboration in a structured manner. As Martin Luther King Jr once stated, “We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools.” This underscores the imperative for sustained collaboration through institutions like the BNC.

Constructivism suggests that international relations are shaped by ideas, identities, and shared values rather than mere material factors. Therefore, the symbolic 25th anniversary of the BNC is a reflection of the shared identity and history of Nigeria and South Africa.
According to John Maynard Keynes, “The ideas of men, their dreams and visions, are much more powerful than material forces.” The role of shared visions in shaping Nigeria-South Africa relations cannot be over-emphasized.

Shared History

The history of Nigeria-South Africa relationship runs through the period of Anti-Apartheid Solidarity of 1960 – 1965, through Post-Apartheid engagement that started in 1999. Nigeria was a leading supporter of South Africa’s liberation movement. Between 1960 and 1995, Nigeria committed substantial financial and diplomatic resources to the anti-apartheid struggle, offering refuge and education to South African exiles like Thabo Mbeki.The Bi-National Commission, established in 1999, institutionalized bilateral cooperation. However, relations have faced challenges, including xenophobic attacks in South Africa and trade imbalances.

The current nature of the two countries’ economic relations shows that Nigeria’s oil exports and South Africa’s industrial expertise complement each other. Opportunities under AfCFTA and energy collaboration highlight the untapped potential of this relationship. Looking ahead, it is rather easy to see that with strong historical ties and shared visions, Nigeria and South Africa are well-positioned to lead Africa’s socio-economic transformation.

From Anti-Apartheid Solidarity to Economic Collaboration

The Nigeria-South Africa relationship is a tale of resilience, solidarity, and transformation, deeply rooted in shared historical, political, and economic narratives. As Africa’s largest economies, the two nations have carved distinct yet intertwined paths that highlight their roles as both leaders and collaborators in shaping the continent’s destiny. From Nigeria’s pivotal support during South Africa’s anti-apartheid struggle to their evolving economic partnership, this relationship embodies the essence of African unity. Yet, it has not been without its challenges, marked by moments of friction and unresolved tensions.
The forthcoming 11th session of the Nigeria-South Africa Bi-National Commission (BNC) in Cape Town provides a fitting occasion to reflect on this storied partnership. With the backdrop of the 25th anniversary of the BNC, it is an opportune moment to examine how the two nations have evolved from their shared fight for justice to becoming co-architects of Africa’s economic and political renaissance.
The roots of the Nigeria-South Africa partnership lie in the era of apartheid, where Nigeria emerged as one of the most steadfast allies of the African National Congress (ANC) and other liberation movements in South Africa and Nigeria’s key contributions cover:

• Diplomatic Advocacy: Nigeria was a vocal opponent of apartheid on global platforms such as the United Nations and the Commonwealth, pushing for sanctions and isolating South Africa’s apartheid regime diplomatically.

• Financial and Material Aid: Under initiatives such as the “Mandela Tax,” successive Nigerian governments provided significant financial and logistical support to the ANC. Over the decades, Nigeria is estimated to have spent over $61 billion in its efforts to dismantle apartheid.

• Educational and Cultural Solidarity: Nigeria welcomed South African exiles and offered scholarships to ANC members, including figures like Thabo Mbeki, who studied and lived in Nigeria during apartheid. Nigerian universities served as sanctuaries for intellectual and political development for many South African activists.

• Civil Society Advocacy: Nigerian artists, intellectuals, and activists utilized literature, music, and advocacy to raise global awareness of the atrocities of apartheid and rally international solidarity.

Nigeria-South Africa relations in the post-apartheid era reflects collaboration, along with some measure of frictions. With apartheid dismantled in 1994 and Nelson Mandela’s election as South Africa’s first democratic president, the dynamic between the two nations transitioned from solidarity to collaboration. However, this new era was also punctuated by moments of tension.

Collaborative Achievements

• Institutional Frameworks: The establishment of the Bi-National Commission in 1999 formalized a structured approach to bilateral engagement.

• African Leadership: Both nations played pivotal roles in initiatives such as the African Union (AU) and the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), advancing the African Renaissance.

• Economic Ties: South African corporations such as MTN, Shoprite, and Multichoice became prominent players in Nigeria’s economic landscape, fostering trade and investment.

Sources of Tension:

• Xenophobia: Recurrent xenophobic attacks on Nigerians living in South Africa have strained relations, spotlighting socio-economic grievances and perceptions of competition.

• Diplomatic Disputes: Occasional policy disagreements, such as South Africa’s visa denial to Nigerian officials during Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency, have highlighted gaps in mutual understanding.

• Trade Imbalance: While South African businesses thrive in Nigeria, Nigerian firms face significant barriers in South Africa, fueling perceptions of unequal benefits.

Pragmatic mutual exploration of trade and economic potentials has since taken over. As Africa’s two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa are uniquely positioned to lead the continent’s economic transformation.
Current Dynamics.

• Trade Composition: Nigeria primarily exports crude oil and natural gas to South Africa, while South Africa exports machinery, manufactured goods, and processed foods.

• Investment Landscape: South African firms dominate in sectors like telecommunications (MTN), retail (Shoprite), and media (Multichoice).
Opportunities for Growth.

• Intra-African Trade: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents opportunities for deeper trade integration, particularly in technology and industrial goods.

• Energy Partnerships: Nigeria’s energy surplus and South Africa’s demand create possibilities for collaboration in oil, gas, and renewables.

• Shared Regional Leadership: Joint infrastructural and developmental initiatives can drive economic growth across Africa.

A Vision for the Future
Despite historical and contemporary challenges, the Nigeria-South Africa partnership remains a cornerstone of African diplomacy. The 25th anniversary of the Bi-National Commission serves as an opportunity to recalibrate their relationship and unlock its potential for mutual and continental benefits.

As Thabo Mbeki poignantly remarked:
“We share a common destiny as Africans. Only through unity and cooperation can we rise above our challenges and achieve greatness.”
This sentiment captures the essence of Nigeria-South Africa relations—a partnership poised to redefine Africa’s trajectory toward peace, prosperity, and global relevance.

Sunday Dare
Special Adviser, to the President on Media and Public Communications

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Measuring national progress, NBS data, and scepticism

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Bayo Onanuga

By Bayo Onanuga

Recent reports from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) have become a focal point of criticism and scepticism, especially by the political opposition and perpetual doubters of any positive report about our country.

In its Q2 labour survey report, the NBS says the unemployment rate fell from 5.3 % in Q1 to 4.3% in Q2. Compared to the unemployment rate of 5.3% in Q4 2022, the report shows some progress, as it also indicates lower level of youth unemployment.

The NBS also reported that GDP growth in the third quarter rose to 3.46% year-on-year in real terms, higher than the 2.54% recorded in Q3 2023 and above the second quarter growth of 3.19%.

The report stated that the GDP’s performance in the third quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.19% and contributed 53.58% to the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector grew by 1.14%, from the growth of 1.30% recorded in the third quarter of 2023. The industry sector’s growth was 2.18%, an improvement from 0.46% recorded in the third quarter of 2023.

“In terms of share of the GDP, the services sector contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023.

“In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP at basic price stood at N71,131,091.07 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher than the third quarter of 2023, which recorded an aggregate GDP of N60,658,600.37 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 17.26%.

Amid a singer’s uninformed opinion that went viral on social media that our country’s economy is in shambles, the NBS sounded positive, reporting that the economy is improving, as proven by the successive growth from Quarter one of 2024 up until Quarter 3.

Ordinarily, such positive reports should elicit hope and joy that our country’s economy is getting out of the woods, but they were instead met with skepticism from some quarters.

Unfounded allegations by critics that the data was manipulated fail to recognise the transparent and robust methodologies employed by the NBS. These methodologies are continually reviewed and improved to ensure reliability, providing a solid foundation for the data presented.

In contrast, when the NBS reported that inflation figures rose, these same voices quickly endorsed the report, illustrating some Nigerians’ selective acceptance of data based on preconceived narratives and confirmation bias rather than its authenticity.

It is crucial to emphasise that the NBS operates as an independent entity committed to providing accurate and objective data. These statistics are not mere numbers; they are derived from comprehensive research and analysis, reflecting the multifaceted realities of our national economy. The processes align with global best practices, and the bureau’s methodologies are continually reviewed and improved to ensure reliability.

Moreover, the positive economic indicators should be viewed as milestones in the ongoing efforts by the Tinubu administration to strengthen Nigeria’s economy. The figures by NBS reflect that a combination of government initiatives is yielding fruits, boosting the service sector and the stock and bond market, creating jobs, and driving sustainable growth. These developments, sooner than later, will translate into improved living standards, increased job opportunities, and a more robust economy for all Nigerians.

While challenges remain, dismissing progress in a knee-jerk manner, as some Nigerians do, negates the hard work of the government and the private sector, which contributed to these achievements.

The same way some Nigerians dismiss and deride economic data is very prevalent on the judicial front and in the work of the Independent National Electoral Commission. When a politician wins an election or a legal case, the singsong is that it has been a fair contest and justice has been delivered; however, when a candidate or party loses, the supporters binge on derision against INEC or the judges. Only recently, a prominent Nigerian went abroad to dismiss the 2023 election as a travesty because his candidate did not win the poll or the legal challenge instituted.

As Nigerians, we must respect our judicial system, even when the outcome does not favour us. The symbol of justice is a pendulum, and judges uphold justice based on the rule of law, without public pressure or sentiment. Accusations of corruption, whenever verdicts defy personal expectations, undermine the integrity of our courts and the democratic principles we cherish. We must turn the page over these matters and stop clinging to skepticism when presented with favourable data reflecting our nation’s progress. Those who truly want Nigeria to become a great country we all claim we seek will not use every opportunity to take out the flames of national progress. While the challenges remain and are being addressed, we must always recognise and celebrate every progress.

– Onanuga is Special Adviser to President Tinubu on Information and Strategy

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