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Nigeria Risks Another Recession As Global Oil Fight Begins

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Saudi Arabia plans to unilaterally increase oil output next month, a move that could further reduce prices, reliable sources told Bloomberg. Such a move could make matters worse for oil-dependent countries like Nigeria.

Recall that the price of crude reduced Friday after oil producers failed to agree on oil cuts at an oil producers meeting.

Members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, resolved on Thursday to cut crude oil production by a combined volume of about 1.5 million barrels per day, to stop further reduction in international oil price.

The cut would have been about 1.5 per cent of current global crude oil supplies of over 300 million barrels per day.

OPEC said that the burden of the cut would be shared with non-OPEC allies, led by Russia.

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However, on Friday, Moscow rejected the plan and said countries were free to export as much oil as they could from March ending when the current deal ends.

Responding aggressively to the collapse of its OPEC+ alliance, Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil output next month, going well above 10 million barrels a day.

“Saudi Arabia is now really going into a full price war,” Bloomberg quoted managing director for the Middle East at oil consultant FGE, Iman Nasseri, as saying.

Already, Saudi Arabia has begun to show its mettle as it, on Saturday, slashed the price it sells crude into foreign markets.

The price slash offered unprecedented discounts in Europe, the Far East, and the U.S. and enticed refiners to purchase Saudi crude at the expense of other suppliers, Bloomberg reported.

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The big price slash may be an effort to force Russia and other producers back to the negotiating table.

According to the report, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest Oil Exporter, has privately told some market participants it could raise production much higher if needed, even going to a record of 12 million barrels a day.

Saudi production is likely to rise above 10 million barrels a day in April, from about 9.7 million a day this month, before going to as high as 12 million barrels.

“That’s the oil market equivalent of a declaration of war,” a commodities hedge fund manager told Bloomberg.

Nigeria makes most of its foreign earnings from oil. The current price of oil is already well below the $57 a barrel Nigeria benchmarked its 2020 budget, with planned daily production put at 2.18 million barrels.

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Currently, Nigeria produces about 2 million barrels daily.

According to details on oil data site, international benchmark Brent crude slid 9.4 per cent to settle at $45.27 per barrel on Friday while Nigeria’s Bonny light sold at $46.33 per barrel sliding at about 10.8 percent.

With oil demand being overwhelmed by the coronavirus outbreak, if Saudi pumps more oil as it planned by April, oil prices will fall further, a move that could further affect Africa’s largest economy.

“This is going to get nasty,” Bloomberg quoted Doug King, a Co-founder of the Merchant Commodity Fund. “OPEC+ is going to pump more, and the world is facing a demand shock. $30 oil is possible.”
Last week, Nigeria’s Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed, called for a review of the budget as she said the outbreak of Covid-19 (coronavirus) negatively impacted Nigeria’s oil revenue.

Already, experts fear Nigeria could slide into a recession if the price of crude continues to slide.

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Between April and June 2016, Nigeria slipped into a recession caused by a critical fall in global oil price.

The oil prices fell from about $112 per barrel in 2014 to below $50 dollars per barrel in 2016.

Since Nigeria recovered from its last recession, President Muhammadu Buhari promised to diversify the Nigerian economy from being oil-dependent. That, however, is still a long way from being achieved.

Already, Nigeria’s ability to cushion any effect of global oil price has been weakened as the country’s Excess Crude Account dropped to about $71 million in February from over $2 billion in November 2018.

Reacting to the Saudi move and a potential drop in oil price, a financial analyst, Tope Fasua, said Nigeria is not prepared for the economic eventuality.

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He said if the oil price gets to $30 per barrel, it may mean a recession for Nigeria because the oil sector is a major part of the economy.

“All these other countries are prepared, they have enough reserves Saudi Arabia has trillions of dollars in its reserve shelving it for it sovereign wealth fund, Russia equally has quite a bit of reserve and sovereign wealth fund.

“Already Nigerian economy is in trouble, I think that’s why they intended to borrow $22.7 billion loans because the loan is for every other budget item,” he said.

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Breaking: PANDEF replies Wike, we never took Tinubu to court

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… Accuses minister of blocking peace efforts in Rivers crisis

The Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) has debunked claims by Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Nyesom Wike, in a recent media chat, alleging that the organisation to court President Bola Tinubu over his position on the Rivers State crisis.

Wike had criticised PANDEF over its stance on the ongoing political crisis in Rivers State. He described PANDEF as “the worst organization anybody can rely on,” accusing its leaders of being financially driven and politically motivated.

But addressing press conference on Friday, Co-Chairman, Board of Trustees of PANDEF and Chairman of the organisation’s Peace, Reconciliation Committee and former Governor of Cross River State, Victor Attah, and its President, Godknows Igali, said the organization had placed embargo on speaking on the issue.

Igali said: “There was no time that PANDEF took Mr President to court, maybe it’s it a slip of the tongue. It never happened. This is the first time that PANDEF as an organization is making a public statement on this situation in the Rivers State since the crisis started. And even when the peace committee started working we placed an embargo that they must not speak to anybody until we arrive at the threshold.

“Yes, there were personal views that were expressed by some members of PANDEF. But there was no time that PANDEF as an organization…there is no press statement. So it is unthinkable to say that PANDEF went to court at all.“

PANDEF also raised concerns over the refusal of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), to engage with its Peace and Reconciliation Committee, despite President Bola Tinubu’s appeal for dialogue to restore stability in Rivers State.

Attah, lamented that Wike’s unwillingness to meet with the committee is obstructing efforts to de-escalate tensions in the state.

Attah detailed how PANDEF, a respected regional body established in 2016 to champion the interests of the Niger Delta, had taken proactive steps to mediate in the political crisis in Rivers State.

Following a Special General Assembly in Port Harcourt in October 2024, the group set up a seven-member High-Level Peace and Reconciliation Committee.

Notably, the committee excluded any representatives from Rivers State to ensure neutrality.

“In a determination to prevent a full-blown crisis from developing, we constituted a team of eminent elders from across the South-South region,” Attah said.

“However, despite repeated attempts, we have been unable to secure a meeting with Chief Nyesom Wike, who has continued to rebuff our peace efforts.”

According to Attah, a PANDEF delegation met with President Tinubu on March 11, 2025, to seek his intervention. The delegation made it clear that the success of any peace process hinged on Wike’s willingness to come to the table.

“We informed Mr. President of the difficulties we have faced in securing the cooperation of his cabinet minister,” Attah explained.

“It is deeply troubling that Chief Wike has dismissed PANDEF as ‘the worst organization for anyone to rely on’ in a recent media chat, yet the President did not treat us with such disregard when he received us.”

Attah stressed that dialogue requires mutual engagement and cannot be forced upon one party alone.

“It is not possible to clap with one hand. Negotiation can only take place if both parties in dispute agree to be accessible and available,” he said.

Given Wike’s continued rebuff, PANDEF is now considering withdrawing entirely from mediation efforts.

“If this impasse persists, we will have no choice but to disband the Peace and Reconciliation Committee and step back from any further attempts to resolve this crisis,” Attah warned. “However, our fear is that this could have catastrophic consequences.”

PANDEF urged President Tinubu to intervene and ensure Wike comes to the negotiation table before the situation in Rivers State spirals further out of control.

PANDEF’s National President, Igali described the FCT minister’s insinuation that they were financially induced as very cheeky. “That is very cheeky. Because I’ve said earlier, when you have a group made up of former governors, former ministers, chairman of traditional religious councils, some of whom have been themselves former governors and former ministers, It’s just totally out of question. Wike himself, is our son. Every son of Niger Delta is part of PANDEF.”

Igali also recalled on the organization has stood by Wike including when they were protest against his nomination as minister, and it was the late Elder Statesman, Edwin Clark, whom they accused Wike of disparaging him and his memory, that issues a statement in his defence.

“Let me tell you, when the minister became minister, and you will recall, in fact, there were some insinuations that somebody from the south, should not be minister of FCT, and there were even demonstrations in Abuja against the honorable minister of the FCT. It was the same PANDEF that came out to rebuffed the Nigerians, and the same chief Clark that he (Wike) waved at that issued a statement and said that every Nigerian can hold any position if the president finds him worthy and the Senate clears him.

“That press statement is there we can pull it out. After that, Wike the minister of the Federal Capital City, our son, received the delegation from PANDEF, in his office in appreciation, of his people standing by him. So if after some time, he now feels that it is a worse organization, well, maybe times have change.”

 

Details later…

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Couple arrested for gun running in Delta, wife confesses to helping hubby dispatch firearms

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Police

A couple, Mr. and Mrs. Joshua Bogbon Godwell, have been arrested by operatives of the Delta CP Special Assignment Team (CP-SAT) for alleged gun running in the state.

The couple was picked up from their home following a sting operation by police detective on March 9, 2025.

State Police Public Relations Officer, SP. Edafe Bright, who confirmed this in a statement on Thursday, said that they were held following a credible intelligence on them at their residence in Okpe local government area of the state.

Mrs. Uche Joshua, the wife, was said to have admitted to helping her husband dispatch guns to clients in Warri and Sapele.

The police said it recovered a fabricated Beretta pistol with a single live ammunition, which was planned to be delivered to a client in Sapele from their residence.

During interrogation, Mrs. Joshua confessed to her involvement in the gun-running business, saying, “I helped my husband dispatch guns to clients in Warri and Sapele. I was the one who delivered the guns to the clients.”

Edale said that police are still investigating the couple and their associates, with efforts to recover more firearms and arrest other suspects.

Equally, on February 3, 2025, operatives arrested a suspected cultist and gun runner, Stephen Oma Odu, who has been on wanted list from Obagho community in Warri North LGA Delta State at Sapele town.

His arrest also led to the arrest of another 42 years old suspected cultist, Abel Festus, aka “TOMPOLO.” of Oghareki community in Ethiope West LGA, at Oghara town.

Two pump action guns and 24 rounds of live cartridges were recovered from Festus’ apartment.

“Two other suspected cultists were also arrested during the raid including Godspower Moses m” aka power of Kokori community in Ethiope West LGA Delta State and Oloriode Owebe m” 24 years of Oghareki community in Ethiope West LGA Delta State”, Edafe added.

Police says preliminary investigations revealed that they were suspected members of the Vikings’ confraternity.

Additionally, CP-SAT arrested 26 years old Oboyo, a notorious cultist and suspected kidnapper from Igbopa community in Ethiope West LGA, and recovered a locally made gun with a single cartridge.

According to Edafe, an “FBI” impersonated enlargement carrying his picture was also recovered, which he used for internet fraud.

“Other members of his gang which include Favor omowo “m” 29yrs aka “Voltage” of Jesse town in Ethiope West LGA Delta State and Gift Omowo “26yrs of Jesse community in Ethiope West LGA Delta State were also arrested.

“Trailing of his other fleeing gang members is on course while investigation is ongoing”, the statement added.

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Nigeria lost ₦120 billion to Illegal charter operations –Keyamo

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Keyamo

Nigeria’s Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has revealed how illegal private charter operations plagued the country’s aviation sector for over five decades and cost the federal government an estimated ₦120 billion in lost revenue over the past 10 years.

The minister made the revelation during fourth edition of the Federal Ministry of Information and National Orientation’s Ministerial Press Briefing in Abuja on Thursday. Keyamo described the issue as a “hydra-headed monster,” revealing that 80% of private jet owners in Nigeria have the habit of obtaining Private Non-Commercial Flight (PNCF) licenses but use their aircraft for commercial operations daily.

He said the PNCF license is intended for private use, such as transporting family members or attending social or business events and that it attracts a significantly lower fees compared to licenses for commercial charter operations, which require higher fees and stricter regulations. The minister explained that private jet owners exploit this loophole to avoid paying fees and taxes for commercial purposes. He said for instance, while a commercial charter operator might charge $10,000 for a flight from Lagos to Calabar and pay the required fees, private jet owners with PNCF licenses conduct similar operations without remitting the necessary revenue to the government.

Keymao said that in the past 10 years, Nigeria lost approximately ₦120 billion due to unremitted fees and taxes from illegal charter operations. “They go and obtain the PNCF license, the private one, but all of them are back every day for business. All of them. This is how the federal government has been losing revenue,” he said.

Keyamo said private jets which operate without proper documentation or passenger manifests, makes it difficult to track who or what is on board. He raised concerns that these jets could be used for illegal activities, including smuggling, money laundering, and even terrorism. “You don’t even have the manifest of those inside the aircraft. Sometimes, when there’s a near accident with a private jet, we struggle to find out who was inside. It’s totally unregulated.”

To address the issue, Keyamo established a task force last year headed by the Managing Director of Aero Contractors, Captain Ado Sanusi to investigate illegal charter operations. The task force submitted its report last week, saying they uncovered “mind-boggling” findings. Among the recommendations the task force made is the total shutdown of the private charter wing at airports for a complete overhaul.

“The task force suggested shutting down the private charter wing for total reconfiguration in terms of security and the kind of machines we use to screen bags. We are still looking into how to implement these recommendations without disrupting passenger movement,” Keyamo said.

 

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